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Educated investors fare far better when it comes to investing. Our deep Library of over 300 Market Reports, Our Podcasts, and Our Best-Selling Book, Rigged to Fail, aim to do just that - educate yourself for free.
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Below we track how Powell’s Fed serves far more as a problem (and cause of the problems) rather than aRead More
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Rigged to Fail
Published on Amazon.com
Despite the record-breaking (and frankly dangerous) market highs of the post-2008 "receovery,“ current securities markets are poised for an equally record- breaking and wealth destroying fall.
Rigged to Fail explains all of this with math, not opinions, and offers elegant approaches to protect informed investors from losing fortunes in the pending market storm. With over 50 combined years working in and among Wall Street's top global banks, family offices and alternative investment funds, Matt and Tom bring an insider's perspective that is free of fluff but rich with straight-talk, not sales talk.
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Our Smart Portfolio Solutions include exclusive access to our constantly refreshed Market Commentary, to our proprietary Recession Analytics that forecast stormy weather and recessions ahead, and to our Smart Portfolios geared to your very own tolerance for risk, plus Market Tickers, Ticker News, and more.
Example content. Refreshed Daily.
Eye on the Markets
Eye on the Markets is published daily following each NYSE close, providing lively narrative and insights on what’s happening in the markets each day, why it matters, and what’s ahead, including a heads up on Portfolio changes. By example...
Markets Notes for Wednesday
U.S. equity investors got a double dose of good news on Tuesday as the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index each closed above their 50-day moving averages. Technically-inclined analysts see that as a green light for more gains ahead, a critical juncture for equities with the second-quarter earnings season just getting underway. The S&P 500 defied another late-day reversal in favor of closing near session highs. All eleven industry groups advanced. On Wednesday, we’ll be lightening our hedges by retiring two of three inverse ETFs (RWM & PSQ) and TAIL as well, in favor of Semiconductors (SOXX), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Transportation (IYT) - all relatively beaten down but now showing signs of life.
Pulling It All Together
Pulling It All Together is a Subscriber favorite, according to polling. Published on Sundays, each Edition highlights ten compelling charts with accompanying narrative that informs on what’s happening now in the markets and Portfolios. By example…
"QUOTE OF THE WEEK"
"Outflows from global equity funds are still only just starting to catch up with investor pessimism," Bank of America said last week, citing EPFR fund flows and allocation data across markets, regions, and asset classes. "Everyone is bearish, but no one has sold," BOA said. This week's Pulling It All Together supports BOA's view that no one (or certainly not enough) investors have sold. This week we describe inflation stoking recession, Fed preferences for higher rate hikes, and tumbling confidence among CEOs and consumers, along with insights into Model Portfolio construction.
Inflation & Recession
It's been four months since the interest rate hiking cycle began, yet inflation continues to soar. Nineteen of the 21 major line items in June's CPI report were reported recently to be higher than the average of the previous six months, clearly stoking recession probabilities (chart-left). Within the left-hand chart, we've inserted a mini chart from the WSJ's "Daily Shot" that shows the timing in months to the next US recession fast falling. Chart-right, we show the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2:2022 real GDP growth, namely -1.6 percent. If we get a print of -1.6% GDP for 2:2020, we're already in recession. Keeping It Simple: Fast-falling timing to the next recession isn't falling fast enough, for if the GDPNow estimate is correct, we're already in a recession.
Storm Tracker is a proprietary tool that tracks over 100 market and leading indicators across multiple timeframes. Storm Tracker assesses market risk, assigns recession probabilities, and informs on cash allocations across Model Portfolios. By example…
Model Portfolio allocations are provided for each Portfolio, sorted and illustrated by sector. As you can see from the illustrations below, our Portfolios are not traditionally allocated 60/40 to stocks and bonds. Those days are over. By example...
Descriptions, performance graphs, and scrolling news are provided for each Model Portfolio selection, with data constantly refreshed. Topical news feeds from multiple sources provide third party news and views on Portfolio selections. By example…
U.S. & Global Markets
Our domestic tickers and global heat map are informative and interactive. Subscribers have the ability chose timeframes, zoom to full screen, apply technical overlays and analysis, and access global indices and constantly refreshed news. By example…
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- Troubled by the potential for recession ahead?
- Worried about your stock & bond investments?
- In need of straight-talk, not sales-talk?
- Looking for an advisor that pulls all this together for you?
- And does the investing for you?
Then you’ve come to the right place because:
- We track and share recession probabilities each week.
- We go elsewhere when stocks & bonds are falling.
- Our Signals Matter subscribers trust us.
- We publish Pulling It All Together each week at Signals Matter.
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Our purpose is to educate
Signals Matter content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Information contained on the Signals Matter website is based upon our views and our research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Statements concerning financial market trends and recession probabilities are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There can be no assurance that an investor will achieve profits or avoid incurring substantial losses by investing in the Portfolio Suggestions presented by Signals Matter. Past performance of any posted Suggestion is not indicative of future results.